Abstract

A growing body of evidence suggests that average global temperatures are increasing. In the southern Appalachians, forested regions are seeing higher average temperatures, more severe droughts, and more severe precipitation events. These climatic changes can lead to adaptive responses in some species. This study sought to determine whether changes in climate over the last twenty years have impacted the distribution of breeding bird populations in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). The expectation was that as temperatures increased, some species would move to higher elevations to remain within their preferred climate envelope. Overall declines in some species populations were also expected. Researchers from NC State performed breeding bird surveys throughout the GSMNP in the late 1990s. A selection of these point count surveys spanning different elevations were repeated in 2018. At each point, two researchers recorded all bird species detected aurally and visually over a ten-minute period. Points were placed into three different elevation categories. Ten points were selected from each elevational band for direct comparison between the historical surveys and the counts conducted in 2018. For each elevational band species richness and abundance were measured. Species composition was then compared to historical data. A decline in some species across all elevational bands were observed, in addition to shifts in elevation for other species. Further surveys are required for proper analysis of point count data, but preliminary results suggest that of those species that have shifted their distribution, most have shifted upslope and only three species have shifted downslope. Species abundance and richness remain high at all bands.

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