Abstract
The NOAA/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues probabilistic convective outlooks for the contiguous 48 U.S. states. The Day 1 convective outlooks, issued five times per day and valid through the following morning, provide the probability of a tornado, severe hail (greater than or equal to 1 inch in diameter), or severe wind (greater than or equal to 50 knots) within 25 miles of a point. Comparisons of these convective outlooks with an observed tornado, severe hail, and severe wind reports during the period 2011–16 reveal the forecast accuracy of SPC forecasters. This effort produces accuracy measures for each hazard type both in aggregate and for each of the five daily forecast times. Scalar attributes of forecast quality are plotted on three different plots: performance diagrams, reliability diagrams, and line plots showing seasonal variability. Results indicate that the SPC may inflate the spatial extent of convective outlooks at the risk of creating false alarms in order to advance their mission to protect property and save lives.
How to Cite
Flynt, G., (2019) “Day One Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook Verification Between 2011–2016”, Capstone, The UNC Asheville Journal of Undergraduate Scholarship 32(1).
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