Abstract

As the inflammatory comments from political candidates about immigration seem to increase, there appears to be a disconnect between voters’ concerns and behavior and the demographics of their localities. This leads one to wonder: to what extent does immigration affect electoral outcomes across states? I theorize that political candidates push rhetoric that advances a negative view of immigration, connecting voters’ concerns over issues such as safety and the economy, to an increase in immigrants. This rhetoric should be particularly effective in areas with more immigration, and more advantageous to Republican candidates to utilize. Thus, I hypothesize that states with higher levels of immigration will have higher voter turnout and a higher percentage of the vote share for the Republican candidate. I test my argument through a quantitative approach using data from the 2024 election cycle. I find minimal support for my first hypothesis, and no support for my second hypothesis. These findings suggest, on a local level, immigration alone is not a motivating phenomenon to voters.

Keywords

immigration, politics, american politics, voting behavior, electoral outcomes, elections, partisanship, rhetoric, voter turnout, presidential elections

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